Messing with NYT copy in the name of the World Wide Web

This article originally appeared in the New York Times on Jan. 21, 2007. The following is a more web-friendly re-working of the original.

NEW ORLEANS--The empty streets, deserted avenues and abandoned houses prompt a gnawing question, nearly 17 months after Hurricane Katrina: Is this what New Orleans has come to -- a city half its old size?

Some economists and demographers seem to think so: the Louisiana Recovery Authority reported a population figure of 191,000 in November, about half of the 444,000 pre-Katrina census estimate.

Though these numbers are disputed, it’s clear that the city’s population will continue to trickle down from its peak of 627,525 in the 1960 Census. According to Elliott Stonecipher, a consultant and demographer based in Shreveport, La., any future gains are likely to be small.''Low tens of thousands, over three or four or five years, something in that range,” Stonecipher said. “I would say we could start losing people, especially if the crime problem doesn't get high visibility.''

New doubts, old problems

The new doubts about rebuilding New Orleans and its population, surprisingly, are largely not based on the widespread damage caused by the flood. Rather, crippling problems that existed long before Hurricane Katrina are mostly being blamed for the city's failure to thrive.

The city was losing people at a rate of 1.5 percent a year before the hurricane, more than a quarter of its population was living in poverty, and as many as one in five people were jobless or not seeking work. An unpublished analysis by William Oakland, a retired economist from Tulane University who has studied the city’s economy for decades, shows unusually low rates of participation in the labor force before Hurricane Katrina.

''There are a lot of people out there not working,'' said Mr. Oakland, referring to the period before Hurricane Katrina. Or, he said, they were working in an underground economy, not measured by statistics.

The pre-Katrina statistics Oakland did find, however, are telling:

--About 4 out of 10 men in the working-age population were out of a job or not looking for one, compared with less than 3 in 10 nationally.

--More than half of young black men ages 16 to 24 were not in the labor force, with unemployment rates among young blacks above 25 percent.

--In places like the Lower Ninth Ward and Central City, half of all working-age people were not looking for work.

--The unemployment rate in impoverished, high-crime areas was on target to hit 32 percent, before Hurricane Katrina hit.

--The poorest 30 percent of households had a lower share of the city’s total income than the comparable slice in any other similar Southern city

“The data is showing New Orleans is really a basket case,” Mr. Oakland said. “The job mobility was very low among the poor, so they just stay where they are, and the social welfare system shored them up.”

In addition to New Orleans’ poverty and unemployment rates, another factor haunting the city's effort to repopulate is the incalculable toll inflicted by ghosts from its past -- a political legacy of corruption and patronage, and a deep racial division with a far more distressing passage toward integration than was experienced, say, in Atlanta.

If you build it, will they come?

The smaller New Orleans is almost certain to wind up with a far higher percentage of its population working than before Hurricane Katrina.

Political leaders, worried about the loss of clout and a Congressional seat, press for people to return. Most of those who have not returned -- 175,000, by Mr. Stonecipher's count -- are very poor, and can be more easily absorbed in places with vibrant job markets, they say.

''Where there are high concentrations of poverty, people can't see a way out,'' Mr. Oakland said. ''Maybe the diaspora is a blessing.''

Others, however, worry that permanently losing so many people threatens the city's culture -- its unique way of talking, parading and eating. ''Culture is people,'' said Richard Campanella, a Tulane geographer who has written extensively about the city's neighborhoods. ''If half the local people are dispersed and no longer living cohesively in those social networks, then half of local culture is gone.''

Fixing what’s broken

Looking to the future, another 50,000 people might eventually be added to the city's population, Mr. Oakland suggested, but there are no guarantees.

There has been little to no construction of cheap housing that would enable the return of the largest category of those still displaced, Mr. Stonecipher noted.

A second category of people, 50,000 or more who have established themselves elsewhere but who could return, may be even harder to recapture, given the combination of past weaknesses and continuing present-day hurdles, including the well-documented failure of the state's Road Home aid program for homeowners, the loss of tens of thousands of jobs since the storm, the crime problem and delays in rebuilding moderately priced housing.

''The longer it lasts, the more likely it is that our population is plateauing, the longer the uncertainty continues,'' said Janet Speyrer, an economist at the University of New Orleans.



*It would also be great to add infographics detailing the "before and after" population, unemployment, and poverty-rate figures. In addition, I think this piece could have better, more web-friendly photos. The one that appeared on the inside page of the print addition, of the dog wandering a street of empty homes, is great. A slideshow of similar-minded photos would be a great way to make this story come alive on the web. Or, if those photos aren't available (strong photos will tell this story best, I think), an interactive district map of New Orleans could be added as a sidebar, which viewers could enlarge and see before-and-after figures and employment statistics per ward. This might be effective because it would illustrate the disparity between areas like the Lower Ninth Ward and traditionally wealthier parts of the city.